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New Zealand Orders Kalshi and Polymarket to Exit Market
- New Zealand classifies prediction markets as gambling, targeting Kalshi and Polymarket.
- Only TAB NZ can offer online betting; restrictive stance mirrors global trends.
- New iGaming legislation might allow licensed operators, shaping future policy.
Image Credit: Freepik
New Zealand has ordered Kalshi and Polymarket to exit its market after regulators classified prediction markets as gambling.
New Zealand has intensified its regulatory stance on prediction markets, ordering operators Kalshi and Polymarket to withdraw services from the country.
The Department of Internal Affairs confirmed that offering markets on future outcomes violates national gambling laws, marking a major compliance shift for global prediction platforms.
DIA Declares Prediction Markets as Gambling
The Department of Internal Affairs issued formal notices stating that both Kalshi and Polymarket fall under the legal definition of gambling in New Zealand. Authorities highlighted that only TAB NZ is authorised to offer online betting products in the country.
The directive required both operators to immediately cease offering prediction markets to New Zealand users.
Kalshi responded quickly by restricting access from New Zealand, while regulators continue monitoring Polymarket for compliance. Officials emphasised that unlicensed operators cannot legally offer gambling services under existing regulations.
TAB Monopoly and Future iGaming Framework
New Zealand maintains a monopoly structure where TAB NZ controls online sports and racing betting. The commercial betting operations are managed by Entain under a long-term lease agreement.
Meanwhile, lawmakers are progressing a new iGaming bill that could open the market to 15 licensed operators, potentially reshaping the regulatory landscape.
Despite this potential expansion, current rules remain strict, and prediction markets remain classified as unauthorised gambling activities.
Global Pressure on Prediction Markets
The crackdown in New Zealand reflects a broader global trend. In the United States, prediction markets operate under Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversight, while several European jurisdictions have already imposed bans on similar platforms.
Regulators in other regions have indicated they would also classify prediction markets as gambling if introduced locally.
Authorities in New Zealand echoed earlier conclusions by Australian regulators, reinforcing a growing international consensus on the legal status of prediction platforms.
Mixed Outlook for the Industry
While regulatory resistance continues across multiple jurisdictions, prediction markets still hold recognition in some policy and research circles. Recent analysis by US authorities suggested these platforms can complement traditional forecasting tools, particularly in macroeconomic research.
The industry now faces a divided future, balancing regulatory barriers with growing institutional interest in predictive data systems.
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